Reading a headline
What a release does to price, the spread and a stop — and what it never tells you.
Read an economic release the way the market does — actual against expected, not good against bad. Know CPI, NFP and the FOMC decision by name and by time, check before an idea whether one is due, and explain precisely what a release does to the first bar, the spread and a resting stop: thin liquidity, whipsaw, slippage. What a release will not supply is a direction, because it does not contain one.
5 chapters · 6 quiz questions · 15 terms · included with a plan
Otus, on this module
Most people meet their first big release by accident, halfway into a position, and decide afterwards that news is random. It is not random. It is fast. Two things matter at that minute: knowing the release is coming, and knowing what it does to an order already sitting in the market. Both can be learned in half an hour.
The chapters
Each module ends with you doing what it taught — a written answer Otus reads, and a quiz.
- 01 · Read
Actual, forecast, previous
Why a "good" number can be followed by a falling market.
- 02 · Read
The first bar trades both ways
Thin liquidity, wide spreads, and why a wick is not a verdict.
- 03 · Read
What a release does to a stop
A stop is a trigger. The fill is wherever the next price is.
- 04 · Read
Know it is coming
Where the calendar is, and what the coach can and cannot say about a headline.
- 05 · Write
In your own words
Three sentences. Otus reads them.
- 06 · Quiz
Six questions
A wrong answer still pays. It costs the combo, not the XP.
15 terms this module defines
The same definitions Otus uses in the lessons. All of them are in the trading glossary.
- Scheduled release
- An economic figure published at a known time — inflation, jobs, a rate decision, oil inventories. Known in advance, which is what makes being surprised by one avoidable.
- High-impact release
- A scheduled release that reliably moves major instruments, such as CPI, NFP or an FOMC decision. The ones worth checking for before any idea.
- CPI
- Consumer Price Index: the monthly US inflation figure, released at 8:30 a.m. New York time. Usually published with a core reading that excludes food and energy.
- NFP
- Non-Farm Payrolls: the number of US jobs added outside farming, the headline of the monthly jobs report, usually released on the first Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.
- FOMC
- Federal Open Market Committee: the Federal Reserve body that sets US interest rates, eight times a year. Decision at 2:00 p.m. New York time, press conference half an hour later.
- Core inflation
- An inflation measure that strips out volatile food and energy prices. It can point the other way from the headline figure in the same release.
- Revision
- A correction to a previously published figure as more complete data arrives. It changes the baseline the new number is compared against.
- Consensus
- The forecast: the median of what surveyed economists expected. By the minute before the release it is roughly already in the price, which is why the actual figure alone says little.
- Priced in
- Already reflected in current prices. An expected outcome is largely priced in before it is announced, so only the unexpected part can move the market.
- Surprise
- The distance between the actual figure and the forecast. It is what the market reacts to — a high number at forecast contains no news; a high number below forecast is a soft one.
- Liquidity provider
- A bank or market maker that keeps buy and sell orders resting in the market. When they pull those orders before a release, liquidity thins and price jumps rather than flows.
- Bid and ask
- The bid is the best price at which someone will buy from you; the ask is the best price at which someone will sell to you. Most charts plot only the bid.
- Spread widening
- The gap between the bid and the ask growing around a release, as the orders that normally sit in the market are pulled. Invisible on a chart that plots one price.
- Slippage
- The difference between the price an order was triggered at and the price it was filled at. Small on a quiet afternoon; in a release, large enough that a stop costs more than one R.
- Release bar
- The first bar after a release: usually wide, often trading through both sides of the range before it closes. Its close carries information; its wick records where orders were filled.
Finishing it pays 150 XP and 3 keys on the game board, on top of what each chapter earns. XP measures what you learned — never what you earned. How levels work.
Education only. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything; the school teaches reading charts, never predictions.
Start with lesson one.
The first modules, Otus as your tutor and the game board are free. No card needed.